While all banks have common actions they can take, each bank archetype has their own specific late cycle priorities.”. The McKinsey Insights app offers business insights and analysis on the biggest issues facing senior executives today--from leadership and corporate strategy to the future of work and AI's impact on business and society. In Asia, however, alternative payments, such as instant and mobile payments, grew, while credit cards retained their strong incumbent position supporting e-commerce and POS transactions. But more recently, many in the financial industry have faced a less certain employment outlook. Get Posts. The report from McKinsey identifies four categories, which banks around the world could be put into. US Financial Services Industry 2020‑2024 . Amazon’s second-quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripling of grocery sales. There are indications that the economic situation will worsen in the coming period. Deloitte US | Audit, Consulting, Advisory, and Tax Services The U.S. subscription e-commerce or box market continued its strong growth in 2018. Switzerland reported an increase in share of debit-card spending to 72 percent, from 65 percent, between January and May 2020, In Australia, for example, credit-card share among total card spending fell by five percentage points between February and June 2020, in favor of debit cards. Drops in interregional flows for Asia (−13 percent), Europe (−20 percent), and the United States (−23 percent) directly cut into cross-border payments volumes, while the prices of oil and other commodities fell sharply. Whilst imaginative institutions are likely to come out leaders in the next cycle, others risk becoming footnotes to history. The future of European payments: Strategic choices for banks November 24, 2020 – A joint report from McKinsey and the Euro Banking Association examines the options for banks in a changing landscape. Chapter 2: Merchant acquiring: The rise of merchant services Chapter 1: The accelerating winds of change in global payments Whilst imaginative institutions are likely to come out leaders in the next cycle, others risk becoming footnotes to history. Please try again later. Most transformations fail. Between 2010 and 2019, nominal GDP has grown at roughly 5.0 percent in the geographies covered by McKinsey’s Global Payments Map, while payments revenues have grown at 7.4 percent, or 1.5 times the GDP growth rate. Chapter 3: Supply-chain finance: A case of convergent evolution? In Europe, differences in shopping behavior among geographies were strongly reduced and differences among age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time. The imperative to accelerate transformations to digital-first and more agile organizations has never been greater, and it exists globally. To download the full report or individual chapters, use the links below: Any stability was quickly disrupted in early 2020 by changing geopolitics coupled with reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic, both public (physical-distancing measures and limits on business activity) and private (anticipatory and causal shifts in consumer and commercial behaviors). Company Profile & Annual Report for Mckinsey Access the complete profile. For the global payments sector, the events of 2020 have reset expectations and significantly accelerated several existing trends. The health of the retail wealth management industry remains robust. Location-based services are capturing up to 60% of data and analytics value today predicted by McKinsey in their 2011 report. Western Europe grew at just 1 percent, although it had already largely absorbed the effects of interest-margin compression that had affected the region in earlier years. Additional easing of monetary policies led to lower interest rates, further deteriorating interest margins. Philip Bruno is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, Olivier Denecker is a partner in the Brussels office, and Marc Niederkorn is a partner in the Luxembourg office. Amazon stock jumped 13% on earnings and reporting that Amazon is increasing its lending footprint. How payments can adjust to the coronavirus pandemic—and help the world adapt. At the moment, the industry is facing rapid digital transformation with banks regularly undergoing technological changes to boost productivity. financial services, provide digital identities for unregistered populations and offer innovative healthcare, education and business solutions. Meanwhile, yield curves have flattened and investor confidence in banks has also weakened. Investments in instant payments have begun to reap greater benefits, both in POS and e-commerce usage of instant solutions. © Copyright 2020 Verdict, a trading division of Progressive Digital Media Ltd. McKinsey’s global banking annual report highlights industry struggle, October 22, 2019 (Last Updated October 22nd, 2019 11:58). cookies, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, nine macroeconomic scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, Chapter 1: The accelerating winds of change in global payments, Chapter 2: Merchant acquiring: The rise of merchant services. The health of the retail wealth management industry remains robust . The pandemic has accelerated the move from physical to virtual banking. Overall, while the global health crisis leaves banks and specialists with meaningful revenue concerns, the real challenge—as well as the real opportunity—lies in embracing the acceleration of change. Increased volatility and uncertainty have enabled growth in foreign-exchange-related revenues and pushed up treasury-related transactions as companies scramble to mobilize surplus cash. “Payments and cash withdrawals,” Swiss National Bank, data.snb.ch, September 21, 2020, data.snb.ch. Overcoming pandemic fatigue: How to reenergize organizations for the long run, What’s next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries. Final 3R information for the individual market for 2014 was released on November 19, 2015. Something went wrong. 2. Firms are poised to build up their credit trading desks in anticipation of increased investor demand over the next 12 to 18 months, McKinsey said in a wide-ranging report on the industry’s health. APMs have particularly gained traction in China, where they generated about $43 billion in 2019 revenues, far exceeding the approximately $22 billion for the rest of the world collectively (exhibit). Dezember 2020 – McKinsey Global Banking Annual Review: Banken haben akute Krise 2020 gut überstanden - Erwartete Kreditausfälle 2021... lassen Eigenkapitalrendite auf 1,5% schrumpfen - Mitte 2020 wurden drei Viertel aller Banken unter Buchwert gehandelt Revenue: Over $500 million See Exact Annual Revenue: Employees: Over 1,000 Exact Company Size: Primary Industry: 5416 Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Services : Additional NAICS Codes: 541 : Address: 711 Third Ave New York, NY 10017 mckinsey.com: Note: Revenues for privately … Our forecast uses McKinsey’s nine macroeconomic scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Global revenues grew at nearly 5 percent in 2019, bringing total global payments revenue to just under $2 trillion (Exhibit 1). “The report identifies four distinct archetypes, which banks around the world would broadly associate with based on the strength of the individual franchise and the constraints of its markets or business model: ‘market leaders’, ‘resilients’, ‘followers’ and ‘the challenged’. McKinsey report says sector taking insufficient action to tackle ... Retail & Consumer industry. A half decade of change in a few months For global payments, 2020 stands in dramatic contrast to the year before, which was a relatively stable year. We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. mostly at the expense of cash. “Retail payment: May 2020,” Reserve Bank of Australia, July 7, 2020, rba.gov.au. McKinsey Insights, well-respected financial industry trade magazine, releases damning blockchain report: "The bottom line is that despite billions of dollars of investment, and nearly as many headlines, evidence for a practical scalable use for blockchain is thin on the ground." Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. Chira Barua, McKinsey partner, said: “Given where many players in the banking industry are today, a serious downturn could be catastrophic for many. Chapter 4: A burning platform: Revamping bank operating models for payments Over the past several years, payments revenues had grown by roughly 7 percent annually, which means this crisis leaves revenues 11 to 13 percent below our prepandemic revenue projection for 2020. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. Consequently, all forms of electronic peer-to-peer and consumer-to-business payments have been boosted. In India, banks stepped up their digital propositions, integrating bill payment, e-commerce links, and Unified Payments Interface (UPI)—the nation’s local real-time payment system—into mobile banking apps to present three digital options in a single customer interface. McKinsey Insights, well-respected financial industry trade magazine, releases damning blockchain report: "The bottom line is that despite billions of dollars of investment, and nearly as many headlines, evidence for a practical scalable use for blockchain is thin on the ground." Among the banked, Visa-supported mobile wallets such as PLIN and Yape have gained more than a million users since December 2019, with the pandemic accelerating this trend. Given the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the operating environment, we are diverging from our usual approach of delivering perspectives on the current year’s global payments landscape relative to the prior year. Cross-border payments flows also have been severely affected by the pandemic, as well as by geopolitical dynamics. Blog posts on consulting-related skills, tools, frameworks. 184555 reports; Property Sales, Paid Claims, Asset Under Management, Home Prices… 10827 statistics; Labour Utilisation, Number Of Enterprises, Number Of Employees, Non-Life Gross Written Premium… Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019—corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail. Industry analysis & Market Report on McKinsey & Company, Inc. is a syndicated market report, published as McKinsey & Company, Inc. - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report. On the downside, interest-dependent revenue components are likely to remain suppressed for an extended period, mostly affecting banks that provide payment services. By IOL Reporter Dec 9, 2020 We estimate that up to 57 million US jobs are now vulnerable, including more white-collar jobs. “However, there are steps every bank can take today to change their fortunes and begin the next cycle on a stronger footing, but time is running out. Germany and the United States each saw spikes in cash withdrawals in the days leading up to lockdowns. At the same time, governments have tried to protect the economy as a whole and the well-being of companies as well as citizens. The report points to Amazon.com Inc. in the U.S. and Ping An in China as examples of technology firms that are capturing financial-services customers. By industry, respondents in automotive and assembly and healthcare and pharma are the most likely to say their companies have increased investment. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. In North America, the revenue benefit from an accelerated shift to digital channels has been more than offset by credit-card economics—outstanding balances are down roughly 29 percent from 2019 levels, and increased delinquencies are a possibility. Still, the current global context removes many of the long-standing impediments to embracing transformation. Please email us at: A regional overview of the year in payments, The relationship between GDP and payments revenue. Economies are becoming increasingly dependent on digital technology, bringing ... 2019 State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money. The reduced use of cash benefits banks overall: the cost of cash handling exceeds cash-related revenue inflows, and electronic payments generate incremental revenue. UPI spending increased by roughly 70 percent over the first seven months of 2020. We summarize findings here. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. Fareeha Ali, “Charts: How the coronavirus is changing ecommerce,” Digital Commerce 360, August 25, 2020, digitalcommerce360.com. 4. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Digitization benefits must first fill this gap before generating growth. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Retail Banker International is a product of Verdict. McKinsey’s annual global banking review reveals that almost 60% of banks are not generating the cost of capital/trading below book. The insights provided in the full report are informed by McKinsey’s proprietary Global Payments Map, which has provided a granular, data-based view of the industry landscape for more than 20 years. Given where many players in the banking industry are today, a serious downturn could be catastrophic for many. Asia–Pacific (excluding China) could suffer larger declines, as its revenue model is more affected by NIM contraction, faces increasing government pressures on mass-market transaction fees, and has greater exposure to long-term affected industries, such as travel, tourism, and international remittance payments. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. The fifth annual State of Fashion report by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company forecasts the continuation of tough trading conditions next year, forcing companies to find their ‘silver linings strategies.’ Download the full report to understand the 10 themes that will define the global fashion industry in 2021 and how to navigate the currents they create. The number of electronic-payment transactions continued to grow at healthy rates in 2019, just shy of 20 percent annually (at 10 percent in value conveyed). Applying the A1 scenario to global payments, we forecast that most categories of payment transactions are poised for sharp and rapid rebounds as lockdowns are lifted and behavioral shifts from cash to electronic payments are largely sustained. Monetary authorities reduced benchmark rates in Europe and the United States and then in emerging markets, including Brazil, India, and South Africa, to limit the impact of pandemic-related recession, making net-interest-margin (NIM) compression a global phenomenon. 2 In addition, explore new articles on digitization, marketing, and analytics, across industries such as consumer goods, financial services, and tech. While some categories of spending rebounded, consumers’ well-documented shift from the point of sale (POS) to digital commerce accounts for the reduced use of cash. In the first half of 2020, many cross-border fundamentals radically changed: In addition to the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, certain geopolitical forces that began to materialize in 2019 have grown stronger since. Instead, we focus primarily on the state of the payments ecosystem in 2020 and explore the actions payments providers need to take to compete effectively in the “next normal.”. Join 6,000+ consultants, corporate managers, MBAs and smart eclectic people – learn consulting in a casual and fun way. Large and small markets alike are experiencing rate cuts of 100 to 300 basis points. The fifth annual State of Fashion report by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company forecasts the continuation of tough trading conditions next year, forcing companies to find their ‘silver linings strategies.’ “Payments and cash withdrawals,” Swiss National Bank, data.snb.ch, September 21, 2020, data.snb.ch. “Thousands of ATMs in Australia removed, branches closed due to coronavirus,” ATM Marketplace, August 17, 2020, atmmarketplace.com. Banks in multiple geographies are closing branches (or in some cases, will not reopen branches they closed as a result of the pandemic), as well as ATMs. McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. McKinsey predicts there are … Based on our analysis, the largest subscription e-commerce companies generated $7.5 billion in sales in 2018, up about 30 percent over the prior year. annual banking report, McKinsey said that the industry needs to continue its digital makeover to protect the up to 40 percent of revenues at risk by … Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, Accelerating winds of change in global payments. Fareeha Ali, “Charts: How the coronavirus is changing ecommerce,” Digital Commerce 360, August 25, 2020, digitalcommerce360.com. Created in partnership with McKinsey & Company, the report anticipates that, due to the pandemic, companies will post a 90 percent drop in profit by … For more, please read the McKinsey Global Institute article “COVID-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places.” In Australia, the top four banks have removed 2,150 ATM terminals and closed 175 bank branches since June. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. The health of the retail wealth management industry remains robust We use cookies essential for this site to function well. As financial institutions enter this period of change, we propose five major themes to which payments and bank executives should be particularly attentive: The events and trends of 2020 have undeniably created a changed global context for payments. New findings on the future of the finance industry released by management consulting firm McKinsey & Company are reverberating through the finance industry and business media.In an annual global banking review, McKinsey sends a clear warning to traditional banks: the digital tsunami is coming and you need to move faster if you hope to remain competitive. This is equivalent to four to five times the annual decrease in cash usage observed over the past few years. Reinvent your business. McKinsey’s annual global banking review reveals that almost 60% of banks are not generating the cost of capital/trading below book. The consultant has found a logical explanation for the ascent of China as a leading fintech incubator. McKinsey Global Institute. In Latin America, which is characterized by a significant unbanked population, cash usage will likely remain resilient. For global payments, 2020 stands in dramatic contrast to the year before, which was a relatively stable year. McKinsey’s report last week, drawing on public data and insights from market participants, said headcount was relatively stable at big investment banks this year as client activity surged and firms committed to maintaining their workforce during the pandemic. Business-to-consumer payouts (often salary disbursements) and remittance payments slowed, because of restrictions on the movement of cross-country workers and growing unemployment. “Retail payment: May 2020,” Reserve Bank of Australia, July 7, 2020, rba.gov.au. Considering credit cards are the largest source of the region’s payments revenue, at roughly 44 percent, the decline in outstanding balances alone will outweigh the benefits of increased use of digital channels. Chapter 5: Closing the gap: Matching attackers on B2B sales for SMEs. In 2019, payments revenues grew at 5 percent, roughly one time the GDP growth rate, mainly resulting from contraction in NIMs. Overall, we expect global interest margins to contract by approximately one-quarter percent, on average, in 2020, compared with a six-basis-point reduction in 2019, shrinking payments revenues globally by approximately $82 billion. Second, volume growth is being fueled by the acceleration of digital migration in Southern and Eastern Europe, and by government stimulus measures. Can click & mortar banks win digital war with neobanks? Unlike many past shocks, the COVID-19 crisis is not a banking crisis; it is a crisis of the real economy. According to a survey of more than 2,000 executives around the world, the most likely outcome is the muted-recovery scenario (A1), a combination of virus recurrence and a muted economic recovery, with regional differences. in Welcome to the tenth edition of McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review, which provides a range of possible answers to that question for the global banking industry—some of which are perhaps surprisingly hopeful. “Thousands of ATMs in Australia removed, branches closed due to coronavirus,” ATM Marketplace, August 17, 2020, atmmarketplace.com. Alternative payment methods (APMs), such as e-wallets and instant-payment-based solutions, continue to play a key role in accelerating cash substitution, particularly in developing countries. Unleash their potential. The immediate consequence was, of course, a steep reduction in discretionary spending and a severe demand-side shock, along with reductions in cash usage. N26 boss eyes additional funding ahead of 2023 listing, Raymond James finalises deal to buy boutique investment bank Financo, 2020: UK banks likely to remain profitable despite Covid, UK banks can resume dividends, shares buy-backs: PRA, TD introduces Student Budget Calculator co-developed by students, BPC launches SmartVista digital banking app to give banks and fintechs a boost, CIBC launches AI-based Virtual Assistant powered by IBM Watson. However, countries starting from a high level of digitization (such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) are also seeing pandemic-induced behavior push cash usage to the minimum—fueling payments-revenue growth. The impact was especially great in the travel and entertainment category, which was off 80 to 90 percent. Cross-border e-commerce volumes provided a notable exception to the gloomy news: the second quarter of 2020 brought double-digit growth as initial logistic challenges were resolved. Flip the odds. Boards and management should actively consider strategic moves now instead of the cycle forcing it on them in a downturn.”. At slightly over a quarter of the overall pool, North America remains the second-largest contributor to global revenues and grew at par with global trends. Circles in the chart at right above in a casual and fun way, education and business.. 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